By: Brian Monahan Global Client President, Head of Retail Media Solutions; dentsu  

2025 will mark the 30th anniversary of my first digital advertising campaign.  In those 30 years I’ve never had the courage to predict what will come next in this wild and wonderful industry. Having seen a few hype cycles and being in the midst of one now for Retail Media, this year I thought it would be fun to see how accurate my predictions might be.

Without further ado, here are my 10 retail media predictions for 2025:

1. The Emergence of Global RMN Unicorns
I am betting big on regional Retail Media Networks (RMNs). I predict that both EMEA and APAC each will have a regional RMN with reported USD $1B in billings. Keep your eyes on Seven & I Holdings in APAC and Ahold Delhaize in EMEA as these networks aren't just playing a regional game—they're positioning themselves as global platforms

2. RMN Creative – Co-Lab vs. Co-Op
RMN advertisers will realize that after price and segmentation, the biggest lever impacting return on ad spend is creative.  The craft of RMN creative will move from managing complexity via DCO to true co-branded story telling.  We will start to see AI enabled DCO companies offer not just co-operative creative but collaborative creative.  These premium CPM offers will start to show up on RMN rate cards by the end of 2025.

3. RMN Consolidation: The Strategic Reshuffling
I don’t think we will see many US based retailers throw in the towel on their RMN ambitions in 2025.  That will come later as some retailers pivot to focus exclusively on monetizing their data and shopper media.  2025 will be the year when smaller RMNs start to band together in one-stop-shops in attempts to win national brand dollars.  This will be a slow burn as there are many logistics to work out.  We could also see some consolidation in the Commerce Media (no conversion signal from being the merchant of record) as those players confront just how competitive it is to get traction without retailer-specific, ring-fenced trade budgets.

4. In-store Enters the RMN Chat
This is a layup.  2025 will be the year when most RMNs add in-store ad inventory to their offerings alongside digital placements.  Targeting and measurement will remain a mess for in-store media.  There will be horror stories about train wreck customer experience in store from some irrelevant, outdated ad stuck on a loop.  Creative will be a nightmare.  But it is going to happen as retailers fold the in-store group into their RMN groups.

5. CTV Audience Extension Becomes All the Rage
Perhaps another no-brainer but 2025 will see RMN audience extension bend the curve of the growth of CTV ad spend.  The CTV supply chain will become even more complex as a result.  True reach and frequency will remain elusive.  However, the ability to layer the targeting and measurement of RMN on top of the sight sound and motion of TV ads will become the battering ram RMNs use to crack national Brand budgets.

6. Retailers Get in the Content Game
This will be another hard one to source data and it may be too early, but I predict in 2025 RMNs will commission more “branded entertainment” content than Brands themselves.  The challenge of RMN is that the on-site placements are sold out and the off-site placements struggle to perform.  To meet growth targets, RMNs are going to have to open more ad slots in “owned” programming.  Think podcasts, casual games, sponsored influencers, etc.  This could also be the year where a large Retailer acquires a legacy media company.  Watching retailers morph into hybrid content companies will be fascinating to observe.  Bolting on an ad sales division is one thing, actually making creative content people want to consume is whole other level.

7. AdTech Acquisition
We’ve seen some agency holding companies buy services business with some proprietary tech, but we have yet to see the pure tech companies get into the space in a big way.  Be on the lookout for moves by Google, Adobe, and Salesforce.  Valuations are way overhyped but that’s what we all thought about DoubleClick back in the day.

8. RMN Heads Become CMOs
At most retailers the RMN division reports to the Chief Marketing Officer.  Those CMOs typically have a marketing or merchandising background.  In 2025 I predict we will see more heads of RMNs ascend to the CMO position.  Retailers must get more intentional with how they manage enterprise advertising and their RMN advertising.  RMN activity is a beast that is best understood by someone who has the RMN battle scars.  Seth Dallaire promotion to Chief Growth Officer at Walmart is a leading indicator that this trend has begun.

9. Convergence of Brand and Customer Media Teams
The bugaboo of Retail Media is that there are two different fundamental sources of RMN ad spend – Customer Team “trade” budgets which are generally a % of sales with an individual retailer accounted as COGs and National Brand budgets which are a business expense and not ring-fenced to any one retailer.  Advertisers will never be able to put those two funding sources together but in 2025 we will see most advertisers put management of those budgets under one centralized group.

10. Media Upfronts Get Supplanted by Retailer Joint Business Plans (JBP)
The JBP label often gets applied to annual media spend commitments.  For brands and retailers, the JBP has far bigger meaning as it covers their annual spend and sales goals.  The US television upfront has been under assault for years.  In 2025 we can predict more CPGs to stop making upfront media buys in favor of focusing their energy on including RMN commitments as part of their JBPs with retailers.   

The easiest prediction?   It is going to be another incredibly exciting year in the rapidly evolving retail media sector.  Check back in 2026 to see how many of these predictions hit the mark!